The electricity production capacity does not match the actual production figure. The actual generation of electricity in the financial year 2023-24 was 10948 MW, which was only 10097 MW in the financial year 2022-23. That is, in the last financial year, the actual production of electricity has increased by only 900 MW.
According to Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) sources, Bangladesh's power generation capacity (excluding captive) is 26,364 MW, including imports of 2,656 MW from India. And from July 2023 to last June 30, the total electricity production has been 95911 million kilowatt hours. Which is an hourly average of 10948 megawatts. As such, only 41 and a half percent of the capacity has been produced. And in FY 2022-23, actual production was only 40.53 percent.
The international standard for reserve margin (regular maintenance and contingency reserves of power plants) is 20 to 25 percent. An average of 59 percent of power plants there are sitting idle. If compared with production, this rate stands at 150 percent.
The reason for apprehension is that even if the power plant is sitting, the money has to be calculated from time to time for capacity payment. In the financial year 2021-22, the capacity payment has to be paid 18 thousand 977 crores. Due to this, the cost of electricity production is increasing by leaps and bounds.
According to Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) data, the average production cost of electricity in 2019-20 was Tk. 2.13, in 2020-21 it was Tk. 3.16 and in 2022 it was Tk. 8 and a half, now the average cost of production has exceeded Tk. 12. .
Right now 60 percent of power plants are idle, the demand for electricity is not increasing as per estimates. On the other hand there are many mega projects including Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant. The coming of new power plants means an increase in the idle ratio. And sitting means increasing the average cost of production.
The Revised Power System Master Plan (RPSMP-2016) estimates 3 types of power demand in 2023 (according to high, medium and low speed of economy). The demand estimate according to the medium or based case was 23417 MW. Even the demand estimates do not match the reality.
BPDB is of the view that the power generation has been disrupted due to various reasons. When prices rise, oil-fired power plants are shut down. Due to which the current picture does not have the opportunity to consider the actual condition. If fully supplied according to demand (peak hours), the maximum demand can be 18 thousand MW. Currently the demand is fluctuating from 12 to 18 thousand megawatts. This figure is for the summer season, with winter demand sometimes falling below 10,000.
A BPDB official told Barta24.com on the condition of anonymity that load-shedding-free power supply is not possible due to various reasons including lack of coordination. There are various restrictions depending on the region and time. There are also restrictions on circulation, distribution and production in certain regions. If full supply is provided, the peak demand during summer can be 19,000 MW. In that view the reserve margin is appropriate. However, peak demand falls below 10,000 in winter. This issue is a big challenge for Bangladesh.
Due to the large gap between demand forecast, production capacity and reality, many people are seeing the danger of crisis. For various reasons, the question has started to arise, whether the power generation capacity is increasing, the demand is increasing. If the demand does not increase, how will the power sector pull the burden of idle power plants?
100% electrified, now there is limited scope to increase usage through residential expansion. The standard of living of the customer is improving, AC, refrigerator will be installed in the houses, which will increase the demand. The use of energy saving lights, fans, AC is also increasing there.