Flourishing Democracy in Ukraine is Putin's Real Fear
'The Journal of Democracy' has been covering Putin’s war on Ukraine since the invasion began. In an article tittled 'What Putin Fears Most' published in 'The Journal of Democracy' on April 2022, VOLUME 33, ISSUE 2, and jointly written by Rob Person and Michael McFaul mentioned, "Putin is terrified of the prospect of a flourishing democracy in Ukraine."
The article is highly appreciated for its academic values and received global attentions. The authors of the article, however, are well known for their skills, expertise and wisdom.
The lead author Robert Person is associate professor of international relations at the U.S. Military Academy, director of its international affairs curriculum, and faculty affiliate at its Modern War Institute. His next book, 'Russia’s Grand Strategy in the 21st Century', is forthcoming.
The co-author Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia, is professor of political science at Stanford University, director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. His most recent book is 'From Cold War to Hot Peace: An American Ambassador in Putin’s Russia' (2018).
In their lucid and analytical article, the authors categorically claimed that the
Russian president Vladimir Putin wants you to believe that NATO is responsible for his February 24 invasion of Ukraine—that rounds of NATO enlargement made Russia insecure, forcing Putin to lash out.
This argument has two key flaws. First, NATO has been a variable and not a constant source of tension between Russia and the West. Moscow has in the past acknowledged Ukraine’s right to join NATO; the Kremlin’s complaints about the alliance spike in a clear pattern after democratic breakthroughs in the post-Soviet space.
This highlights a second flaw: Since Putin fears democracy and the threat that it poses to his regime, and not expanded NATO membership, taking the latter off the table will not quell his insecurity. His declared goal of the invasion, the “denazification” of Ukraine, is a code for his real aim: antidemocratic regime change.
Putin may dislike NATO expansion, but he is not genuinely frightened by it. Russia has the largest army in Europe, engorged by two decades of lavish spending. NATO is a defensive alliance. It has never attacked the Soviet Union or Russia, and it never will. Putin knows that.
But Putin is threatened by a flourishing democracy in Ukraine. He cannot tolerate a successful and democratic Ukraine on Russia’s border, especially if the Ukrainian people also begin to prosper economically.
That would undermine the Kremlin’s own regime stability and proposed rationale for autocratic state leadership. Just as Putin cannot allow the will of the Russian people to guide Russia’s future, he cannot allow the people of Ukraine, who have a shared culture and history, to realize the prosperous, independent, and free future that they have voted and fought for.
Although the chance of a stable ceasefire seems remote today, unprecedented sanctions and growing public dissent within Russia could, in theory, force Putin to the negotiating table. The fog of war is dense. But regardless of where the Russian invaders are stopped—be it Luhansk and Donetsk or Kharkiv, Mariupol, Kherson, Odesa, Kyiv, or Lviv—the Kremlin will remain committed to undermining Ukrainian (and Georgian, Moldovan, Armenian, and the list goes on) democracy and sovereignty for as long as Putin remains in power and maybe longer if Russian autocracy continues.
And the Ukrainian people have already proved their mettle: They will fight for their democracy until the day Russian forces leave Ukraine.
This is the essence of the article, with which many disagree, but its evaluation cannot be ignored. No doubt, further analysis of Russia's aggression in Ukraine will continue. The various parties will investigate the cause of the conflict from different angles. But in all discussions, the impact of Ukraine's democracy and independence-mindedness will be the major focul point that really Putin fears most.
Dr. Mahfuz Parvez, Professor, Political Science, University of Chittagong and Associate Editor, www.barta24.com