Israel-Iran conflict has again become a great threat to the stability of the entire Middle East without the end of Israeli brutality in Palestine along the path of Israel-Hamas conflict. International relations expert Professor of International Relations department of Jahangirnagar University Dr. Sahab Enam Khan thinks so. He said, developing countries like Bangladesh will be the first victims of instability in the Middle East. Referring to this ongoing crisis as 'long-term', Bangladesh should not only rely on garments and remittances to deal with the possible situation, but should prepare international trade diplomacy. The Professor said these things in an exclusive interview given to Barta24.com. Planning Editor Ashraful Islam spoke.
Barta24.com: How to assess the recent tense situation in the Middle East? What kind of global challenges is this creating, especially for developing countries like ours?
Dr. Sahab Enam Khan: The situation in the Middle East is completely unpredictable and this unpredictability will continue for a long time. This unpredictability is not just like Israel or Iran jumping for a few days and then stopping again. This unpredictability will continue for a long time and will be at the center of Israel. The relationship between the Arab and Western world revolves around Israel. So here is the volatility centered on Israel. And the crux of it is that the Western world handles it. To be clear, the Arab world has no role here except to wage war of words. There is another point - in view of these events, there is now a big polarization between Russia-China-Turkey-Iran, centered on them. On the other hand, there has been a polarization in the Western world around Israel. This polarization will have a huge impact on the global economy. They would like the West to not be able to do this, which would put a huge strain on the global economy and monetary system. The first victims will be the developing countries.
Barta24.com: Does that mean it is becoming clear that the Western monopoly on the world order has collapsed?
Dr. Sahab Enam Khan: Absolutely. That is why polarization has been created in the world. The Western world has a monopoly on Israel but not Iran. But what will happen to Israel's relationship with the West, how they handle this relationship will depend on how the days ahead will be. What Israel's relationship with the Arabs will be does not matter here.
Barta24.com: Can't we see some kind of contrast between the speeches and statements of the Western countries, especially the United States, and their internal stand...at least when assessing the situation?
Dr. Sahab Enam Khan: That's right. I will add one more thing, that is - the upcoming election in the United States is also an important issue. Because of this, the Israel-West relationship will remain unstable for a long time. It is precisely because of this that the world economy and monetary system are under great stress which will have an impact on developing countries like Bangladesh.
Barta24.com: What kind of impact do you think?
Dr. Sahab Enam Khan: First of all, different types of sanctions, alternative currency pressure will come. Secondly, there will be a lot of strategic diplomatic pressure at this time. We have a kind of constitutional commitment to stand by Palestine, we have been showing it. We have taken the same stand in the case of Rohingyas. Stand up for endangered humanity.
Barta24.com: What kind of precautions should we take in terms of reality?
Dr. Sahab Enam Khan: We need a complete rethinking of international trade. It will not be possible to depend only on garments and remittances. India has not been hit as much by the current world situation or as much as we were by the Ukraine crisis because of the diversity of the Indian economy. I think we have to work hard on four areas. First: Energy security, more precisely we have to achieve self-sufficient energy, which is directly related to national interest. It needs to be mentioned here that many people confuse the national interest of our country with personal interest. In national interest we have to ensure our energy security from indigenous sources. We will not have it with inefficient energy institutions. The entire energy system needs to be overhauled.
Second, our trade diplomacy should not only be verbalized, but trade diplomacy should be strengthened in a practical sense. Among these will be the number one priority, 'Diversity'. That is, various sectors of the economy should be strengthened.
Thirdly, existing relations with Arab countries should be deepened. Also, it is important to create strong alliances with other developing countries that will be affected by this global tension and conflict. We may not be interested in going to BRICS and try to do something ourselves, where our own interests will be prioritized where many countries like Bangladesh are worried about the existing situation. If Bangladesh can bring many economies together to create a collective voice, it will also bring effective results.
Many countries will tell us a lot, but we have to think about how effective it will be in practice. Bangladesh has been talking about trade multi-lateralization for at least a decade, but there is no action on what to export, what to have. Indigenous people are not creating any industry here, nothing much has been done with the potential jute. That means not only words, but a practical effort needs to be taken in the practical sense.
Fourth is to strengthen and expand the internal market. At the moment, the domestic market of Bangladesh is largely dependent. A Cadbury chocolate in India manufactured by themselves to British standards and offered to consumers. There is no more trouble with foreign currency. People are eager to buy old cars in Bangladesh. With such a large market, why is the indigenous car industry not happening here? If it was a country with a small population like Bhutan or the Maldives, one would think so, but that is not the case. We are very relieved to ride in an old car, because the reality is that a car is a necessity. Where economic productivity has increased, scale has increased; Human mobility will naturally increase. But here the productivity and safety of people are being minimized by importing with 200-400% tax.
There is a lot of talk about transitioning into a developing country in 2026, but what will happen to the pharmaceutical industry here? Let the government create APIs with subsidies, let them create commodities - but apart from all this, we are filled with thoughts of impossible adventures which should not be done at all.
Barta24.com: Is excessive bureaucratic reliance a barrier to discouraging possibility and diversity?
Dr. Sahab Enam Khan: Of course, the economy can never be bureaucratic. Here the private sector needs to be brought into more policy making. Private sector believes in profit. So they always want variety. If bureaucrats could understand export diversification, why did the jute industry fail? I think creative industries should be brought in here by reducing bureaucracy dependence by going for extensive privatization. It will help the country's economy a lot in the current global crisis.
Barta24.com: The tension on the border of Myanmar is not stopping, do you see a sustainable solution?
Dr. Sahab Enam Khan: Sustainable solution will come only when Arakan is stabilized. Bangladesh needs to play a leading role in stabilizing Arakan. It can be done in many ways - single support or contribution to infrastructure development. Steps can be taken to strengthen their civil society, political society. It will be seen that the Americans from across the Atlantic are doing it right. Bangladesh is talking about democracy and then Bangladesh can work to restore democracy there. We need to engage with the actors that are active there, not just the Arakan Army because without them the repatriation of Rohingya will not be possible. The Tatmadaw (Myanmar's government military) will not solve this. Nor will the Rohingya crisis be resolved even if the Tatmadaw takes root in Rakhine. If the Tatmadaw cannot stay, the Arakan Army comes; it will not be a solution if they are not engaged. Although Bangladesh has made a lot of progress on the Rohingya issue in the past year, nothing has happened before.
Editing: Mahmood Menon, Editor-at-Large, Barta24.com
