After a long period of stability, we have once again entered a period of instability. There is no denying that inflation was already on the rise. The effect of the rise in prices of goods in the market has created a kind of depression in public life. The lives of people engaged in informal work and certain low income groups were in dire straits. In the meantime, the political instability and uncertainty created by the program of the opposition political parties on October 28 (2023) has raised fears of a major disruption in the supply chain. That is, the supply side of all the vegetables or other products coming from villages to Dhaka city or going there from Dhaka city will be disrupted.

As we know, when this supply side is disrupted, the supply decreases and the price of the commodity increase. There is already a lot of money in the market in the context of loose monetary policy. So the pressure of demand is there. We are afraid that the price of goods will increase in these two. I can already see that the prices of daily products like vegetables-potato-rice are gradually increasing. So if there is political unrest due to programs like strikes and blockades, the prices of goods will increase. What also happens when there is political unrest is that there is a kind of lack of confidence in people's minds, which reduces investment. People don't want to invest in such turbulent times. The investors do not want to take new risks by undertaking new business.

Since the political parties work with people, they should pay attention to whether the people's income is decreasing due to their activities. Especially in the city, the number of people making a living by doing informal work is not very small. If they can't stand on the road, if they can't travel with vans, if products can't come in trucks, then people's income will decrease as a result. Also, the price of goods will definitely increase. It goes without saying that all together will create a hateful situation.

Those who work informally will be the most affected. And those whose income is fairly fixed will also face loss. Even if the income of these low-income people does not increase, the price of GSIS is increasing. But we cannot increase the income of low income people. But they have to buy things at higher prices. Especially for them food price inflation has become unbearable. Political unrest will increase this food price inflation. We are already in food price inflation of more than 12%. I think the political unrest that started from October 28 will further increase the inflation rate. It seems to me that food prices will increase more. In this case, the support of the government as a measure to reduce inflation, to reduce public suffering by selling food through TCB. It will be requested that TCB should increase this amount of food product sales. Private sector entrepreneurs can also be kinder to the laborers working in their factories as part of social responsibility. This will have a positive impact on the market. At least to some extent, the relief of the general public can be ensured.

In the emerging situation, the political parties should do whatever kind of movement they want to do, they should do the rally, but they should make this promise that the roads will not be blocked. We have forgotten that the culture of hartal-blockade is being started in again. It can be assumed that the problem that has arisen to start it again, its effect will fall on all aspects of public life including trade and commerce. It will also have a negative impact on the education sector. At this time, school exams are scheduled. What will happen to the students? If the situation continues, those who have taken money from the bank and started business, they will not be able to return the money on time. It will create more new crisis.

We know that after inflation, the biggest crisis in the country's economy is the dollar crisis. At this time we were hoping to overcome the crisis and move towards stability. Expatriate income has just started increasing with incentives. And this is the time when this uncertainty started. If elections or political unrest were to create a stable situation through reconciliation, then more remittances would come from outside. Our export earnings would increase further. Along with that, the investment might also increase. All in all there would be no loss of employment. But from the point of view of the situation now it seems - these are all things of hope. In fact, the country's economy is under a lot of pressure.

Even if the impact of the political crisis falls directly on the economy, its solution must be political. I don't think the central bank has much to do here. What the central bank can do is take all the other measures it has to reduce inflation, especially the opportunity to tighten monetary policy. Besides, some steps can be taken for the common man - like increasing the amount of cooperation (loans) they give to agriculture, SMEs, cottage industries. In some cases, businesses can increase the number of loan installments. Or can be a little more flexible. This time is really very difficult, in those places where natural calamities have occurred, the government must have taken different initiatives, it may have to take more. The central bank may also have to give policy advice for flexibility in the banking business of these places. But the problem will be that if the government wants to send fertilizer to these places, what if there is a blockade? However, the government can surely provide additional social security in the digital system. For that, I think the political movement should go on but the economy should not be shackled.

What is the crisis that those who know and understand economics in the political parties are unable to see? But not they understand rightly but their intention is only to achieve political goals. In achieving that, they do not take into consideration the suffering they cause to people. Because of that the common people who face the problem then turn away from that political party silently. That's why we think that political parties should pay attention to how ordinary people are injured in their activities, how their income is damaged. They should keep an eye on that.

As we see in recent years, there is a lot of talk about the reserve crisis. I think there is no need to think about it so much. Bangladesh Bank will think about it. But Bangladesh is not as bad as it is said. It is a matter of concern but not too much of a panic because reserve is not always needed. It is to be used when needed. It's about 'rainy days', not about 'shiny days'. Still, worry is something. Every moment export and expatriate income is coming from abroad more or less. So there is no reason to create unnecessary panic about it. Many cite the example of Sri Lanka, but I would say Bangladesh is not in that situation. Bangladesh's external debt is still below 20 percent of GDP. This loan has to be paid in installments and interest of about two billion dollars a year. And of this, foreign debt of the private sector is 3 to 4 percent of the GDP. Altogether about 20 percent of GDP. This is the lowest among the countries in the region. So there is no reason to worry so much about it.

If we don't have political stability, we won't be able to take big investments forward, and implementation will also suffer. So some kind of social contract must be in politics. I hope all political parties want the best of Bangladesh. They must unite. Peaceful change of power or transfer of power, whatever we call it, must be done through elections. And only if that is done, economic transformation can be sustained. It is important to create an environment where everyone can work in a secure environment.

It should be remembered that the size of the economy of Bangladesh is very large. Bangladesh is a 475 billion dollar economy, which is now the 35th largest economy in the world. It may soon become the 25th economy. Market is the most important in that economy. This economy will need imported goods. But the role of indigenous industry will be the most important. That's why we have to import raw materials and machinery from abroad. So everyone will try to maintain economic relations with Bangladesh. We also need to find a market. Currently our market is in many parts of the West. It must be remembered that we are more globalized than many countries. So we have to move in harmony with the West and the East. That is why foreign countries are interested in Bangladesh, so we are also interested in foreign countries.

We need to adopt smart diplomacy to develop global relations with potential sectors including the Western-made garment sector. It should be remembered that we should not say anything that is irrelevant so that it only creates controversy. Or trade is affected. But we need them too because there are so many big factories in one country but not in all countries. There is a thing called economy of scale. Our position in that judgment is quite strong. Moreover, our factories are undergoing rapid sustainable strategy-based transformation. In the meantime, more than 300 factories in Bangladesh have become green. So the customers in the West need these sustainable products that we make. They get the products from us at lower prices. They can collect it from one place. It is but a reciprocal relationship of dependence. This relationship is not strong at all.

I think we should always try to keep the exports and imports in order with those we do business with; Maintain good relations with them. A smart foreign policy we are now pursuing. May we continue this. In recent decades we have also faced some geopolitical realities. Yet our commercial success continued. However, the situation is changing rapidly. Did we know that Hamas would suddenly attack Israel in the midst of the Russia-Ukraine war? Then Israel will launch such an inhumane attack on Gaza? After this incident, its impact is falling on world politics. It will also affect the economy. This is natural. So we have to be very careful. There is no reason to be complacent. Always engage with our business partners. Bangabandhu's foreign policy of 'friendship with all - enmity with none' should be reminded to everyone and move forward. Enmity with any state would indeed pose a risk to us. We will not enmity with anyone, we will maintain friendship with everyone, let us observe this carefully. Those who work on foreign policy should remember these words very smartly. But our sovereignty and national interest should be the middle of this policy. So far we have been able to maintain this strategy.

National elections are very close. The election manifesto of the parties will be made in the light of the reality of our country. In the current state of our country, I think that inclusive development should be given priority in the economy of Bangladesh. Here agriculture, export industries, digital products, especially skill development, i.e. education and health for all; Also health insurance for all should figure prominently in the manifesto. Cancer-heart disease is now common, suddenly needing a lot of money, so introduction of universal health insurance is very important.

I hope that this issue is the priority of all parties.

[ The writer is a professor emeritus of Dhaka University & former governor of Bangladesh Bank]