Dhaka: The price of gold has dropped again in the country's market. This time, the price has decreased by a maximum of Tk. 2 thousand 519  per bhori. As a result, the price of a good quality, i.e. 22-carat gold, has been fixed at Tk. 1 lakh 36 thousand 189.

The Bangladesh Jewelers Association (BAJUS) gave this information in a notification on Tuesday (November 12) evening.

The organization said in a notification that the new price will be effective from tomorrow, Wednesday.

The notification said that the price of pure gold in the local market has decreased. According to the new price, the price of 22-carat gold per bhori (11.664 grams) will be Tk. 1 lakh 36 thousand 189 . In addition, the price of 21-carat gold per bhori has been fixed at Tk. 1 lakh 29 thousand 995 , 18-carat gold per bhori at Tk. 1 lakh 11 thousand 426  and the price of traditional gold per bhori at Tk. 91 thousand 411.

The notification also states that the government-determined 5 percent VAT and the Bajus-determined minimum wage of 6 percent must be added to the selling price of gold. However, the wage may vary depending on the design and quality of the jewelry.

Earlier, Bajus had last adjusted the price of gold in the country's market on November 7. At that time, the organization had reduced the price of a 22-carat gold bhori by Tk. 3,453 to Tk. 1,38,708. In addition, the price of 21-carat bhori was fixed at Tk. 1,32,398, 18-carat bhori at Tk. 1,13,491 and the price of traditional gold per bhori at Tk. 93,160 which came into effect from November 8. 

Inefficient captives are consuming valuable gas, power plants are sitting idle. With 1 million cubic feet of gas captives generate about 4 megawatts of electricity, while combined cycle power plants are capable of generating 6 megawatts of electricity with the same amount of gas.

That is, it is possible to get one and a half times more electricity with the same amount of gas. Yet, by installing power plants, imported gas is going to captives (producing electricity with their own generators) at high prices. In the 2022-23 fiscal year, a total of 9,724 million cubic meters of gas was supplied to power plants, while 5,310 million cubic meters were supplied to captives during the same period.

There has always been a cover-up about the number of captive power plants and the demand for gas. Petrobangla's gas production report states that on November 7 (2024), 891 million cubic feet of gas was supplied to power plants, while only 102 million cubic feet were supplied to captives. That is, one-ninth.

Although Petrobangla's production report provides such a report, the annual reports of the six companies responsible for gas distribution say otherwise. The gas sales statistics of the largest distribution company, Titas Gas, in its 2022-23 fiscal year report show that the company supplied 3,285 million cubic meters of gas to power plants that year and supplied 4,330 million cubic feet to captives. The report of the distribution company in the Chattogram region, Karnaphuli, also says that more gas was supplied to captives. In the 2022-23 fiscal year, 572 million cubic meters of gas were supplied to captives and 522 million to power plants. However, Jalalabad and Bakhrabad supplied more gas to power plants. The daily average of the six companies is 26.5 million (power plants) and 14.5 million cubic meters (captives). That is, more than half of the gas was used in captives.

Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission sources told Barta24.com that the generation capacity of captive power plants as of June 2024 has stood at 6,085 MW. Of this, 3,460 MW is gas-based. And 2,625 MW is diesel-based. BERC says the rate of establishment of captive power plants is on the rise. 47 licenses were issued in the 2020-21 fiscal year, 125 in the 21-22 fiscal year, 159 in the 22-23 fiscal year, and the latest 310 licenses were issued in the 2023-24 fiscal year.

The Power Grid Company of Bangladesh (PGCB) report dated November 7, 2024, said that out of the 59 gas-based power plants in the country, only 9 received full gas supply on that day. 33 power plants were completely shut down, and the rest were either under regular maintenance or partially producing due to gas shortage.

Petrobangla's report says that on November 7, 891 million cubic feet of gas was supplied to power generation. On that day, the demand for gas was 2,490 million cubic feet. There is a fear that this gas crisis will become more serious. Gas is available from domestic fields at a price of 1 taka per cubic meter. It costs about 71 taka to import the same amount of gas. When the price is high and there is no infrastructure, there is no opportunity to increase imports within 2 years.

To deal with this gas crisis, if the captive (3460 MW) gas is supplied to the power plant, there is an opportunity to get about 1600 MW more electricity.

On the captive issue, the industrial owners say that they are not getting uninterrupted power, so they have to invest extra and install captives. This is harming them. Even if there is load shedding for a few seconds, a huge amount of raw materials are wasted. If there is uninterrupted power, no one will go to captives. The Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) says that the businessmen are telling only part of the truth. In 2012, the Q class was introduced with a guarantee of uninterrupted power. They were supposed to be provided with uninterrupted power through a special line. But due to the high price, not a single entrepreneur applied.

A letter from PDB submitted to BERC said that the distribution company is neglecting the efficient combined cycle power plants while supplying gas to captive power. On the other hand, the companies get a higher price by providing gas to captives, so they are more interested in providing it to captives instead of government power plants.

When more than half of the power plants are shut down due to lack of gas, the approval of captive power plants remains a surprise. There is an obligation to obtain prior permission from the Power Division to provide captive gas connections of more than 10 MW. To avoid that obligation, NR Group located in Jamirdia, Bhaluka Upazila, was given 24.92 MW captive with three different consumer codes during the previous government. In this way, many people got connections outside the rules.

The role of Titas Gas Transmission and Distribution Company (TGTDCL) and Karnaphuli Gas Distribution Company Limited (KGDCL) in the case of captive connections is more critical. Despite strict restrictions, the two companies have provided gas connections to hundreds of captives. Sometimes with the approval of the board, sometimes without the approval of the board. For a long time, the senior secretaries of the Energy and Mineral Resources Division were the board chairmen of the two companies. That is why others did not dare to speak out.

In addition to the wastage of gas in captives, the BPDB is facing a growing deficit due to the idle power plants. Whether the power plants are running or not, the capacity charge is about Tk. 1800 crore per month. As the production capacity increases, the amount of capacity charge will increase accordingly. Those concerned believe that this may lead to a crisis in the power sector.

BPDB plans to increase its gas supply by 40 percent by 2030. The government has set a target of generating 60,000 megawatts of electricity in 2040. Now that 100% electrification has been achieved, the only way to increase electricity consumption is industry. Industrialization is happening, but in reality there is no change in electricity demand. There has been concern for a long time that electricity consumption in industry is not as expected. The main reason for this is the mass installation of captives. If this is not stopped, many are afraid of all kinds of dangers. Shafiqul Alam, lead analyst at the Institute for Energy Economic Financial Analysis, told Barta24.com that combined cycle power plants are more energy efficient than captives. It is possible to generate additional electricity with the same amount of gas. Not only captives, gas are being used in boilers in many cases. Electric boilers are much more energy efficient. A plan should be taken to gradually exit captives.

Ahead of the month of Ramadan, the LC margin and credit limit will be temporarily lifted on the import of 4/5 products, including daily necessities, especially chickpeas, sugar, wheat, and edible oil, said Bangladesh Bank Governor Dr. Ahsan H. Mansur.

He said these things after a meeting held on inflation and commodity prices at the Finance Ministry conference room at the Secretariat on Thursday (November 7) afternoon.

The central bank governor said, there has been a lot of discussion on the supply chain. We have discussed the price of every daily commodity. In this, the government has decided that the duty on most daily commodities has been reduced to zero. We have made some other decisions. We had already lifted the LC margin. Now we will issue a circular next Sunday that no margin should be given on daily commodities. We had lifted it and left it to the banks. However, we will encourage banks not to charge LC margin on daily necessities until the next Ramadan. This is a significant decision that we will make.

We have to be patient for the country's economy to stabilize. It will take 12 to 18 months to stabilize, said Dr. Ahsan H. Mansur.

He said that inflation rose to 10 percent in October. This could be due to various reasons including floods. However, rice prices are at a tolerable level. He also said that if the prices of energy products in the international market decrease, it will have an impact on the country. The liquidity crisis of the bank has already started to ease. Moreover, dollars are available in the bank. He also said that if no one gives dollars at this time, he will inform them.

Stating that the market is being monitored constantly, he said that no one can do anything irrationally. I have seen supply increase naturally and not by threatening people during the 1/11. He also commented that during this time, people will have to leave space on the sidewalks for walking.

With the country's gas sector on the brink, the crisis could take a more dire shape. Especially by the year 2026, many people are looking at the threat of catastrophe. There are not many options available to avert disaster, including pipeline gas from Bhola.

Energy experts consider increasing LNG imports to be a dangerous option. As the skyrocketing price is a barrier, there is no scope to increase the amount of import at will. A maximum daily import of 900 million is possible with two FSRUs. A new FSRU will take at least 18 months after finalizing the tender. In other words, there is no way to increase LNG imports till 2026, even excluding the price issue.

Sylhet gas field company is getting gas per cubic meter for Tk 1, the cost of importing the same amount of gas (LNG) is Tk 71. In other words, if imported, the price is 70 times higher, Bangladeshi consumers are not in a position to pay that price.

According to Petrobangla sources, the rate of 1 taka from the state-owned company Sylhet Gas Field Company Limited, 1.25 taka from Bangladesh Gas Field Company, and 4 taka from Bapex. The average price for the combination of gas purchased from multinational companies Chevron Bangladesh and Tallo stands at Tk 6.07 per cubic meter. About 2000 million cubic feet of gas is available daily from these domestic sources. 900 million gas supply from LNG imports. After one-third import, the average price increased from Tk 6.06 to Tk 24.38.

According to Petrobangla sources, the average price of imported gas in the fiscal year 2023-24 is Tk 24.38. And the average selling price of gas was 22.87 taka. Due to this, Petrobangla lost 1.56 taka per cubic meter. In the financial year 2023-24, the price of LNG brought from the spot market fell to 65 taka, which has to be bought for 71 taka in August (2024).

At a time when one-third is reluctant to import, domestic gas fields are running out of reserves, resulting in a steady decline in production. At one time, 2,800 million cubic feet of gas was available daily from domestic gas fields, on November 5, 1972 million cubic feet were produced.

The biggest concern is that Bibiana, the country's largest gas field, is running out of reserves. 50 percent of the domestic supply is coming from that gas field. At one time, 1,350 million cubic feet of gas was produced, but on November 5, only 990 million cubic feet were found. The gas field may run out of reserves by 2026. If the apprehensions come true, the domestic source of gas will decrease by 1000 million. If that amount of gas is imported in excess, the ratio of 6.07 taka will be reduced to half, and the ratio of 71 taka will be doubled.

Petrobangla estimates that the country's gas demand will exceed 4,500 million Cubic feet in the fiscal year 2026-27. Although some want to say that the actual demand for gas is like 4,500. Demand is being understated as a strategy to understate the deficit.

Energy expert Dr. Ijaz Hossain told Barta24.com that he supports the import of LNG, but it should be limited. If we want to provide uninterrupted power supply then the import cost in this sector will be 24 billion dollars. Which is very complicated for our economy. Production is declining as our domestic gas fields are depleting. If we want to maintain the current production capacity of 2000 million cubic feet then at least 10 exploratory wells should be drilled annually.

He said that in 2023, the cost of importing gas by 20 percent will be 22 taka. In 2030, if the import is 50 percent, the price (cubic meter) will be 38 taka. And if 80 percent import is to be done, then the average price will be like 55 rupees. Therefore, there is no alternative to intensify domestic gas production and exploration activities.

Primary energy expert Maqbul E Elahi Chowdhury told Barta24.com, I think the power sector is on the brink of something bigger than just coal. A long period of accumulated laxity has created this situation today. This situation has arisen due to lack of proper focus on domestic oil and gas exploration. Without electricity, life is stagnant, and to provide electricity, fuel is needed. But it cannot be handled by importing LNG.

What are the possibilities in front of Bangladesh?

In response to such questions, Maqbul E Elahi Chowdhury said, digging new wells very quickly, renovating old wells and increasing production. Bibiana wells are producing up to 70 million, with over 10 to 25 million supplies coming from the Rashidpur and Titas gas field wells.

Another task is to stop gas theft. If the theft of one Titas gas is stopped, it is possible to generate 1000 megawatts of electricity with that gas. 3 thousand million cubic feet of gas is being supplied daily. About 8 percent of this is system loss, that is, about 240 million cubic feet of gas is being stolen. Although it is normal to have some technical losses. But 8 percent is not acceptable at all. A maximum of 2 percent system loss can be considered.

Amjad Hossain, former director of Shahbazpur gas field evaluation and development project and former managing director of Bapex, told Barta24.com, "I don't think Bibiana will be closed suddenly." Once producing 1,350 million cubic feet, now it is steadily falling below 1,000. No information is openly given by any party about Bibiana reserves.

According to Petrobangla's latest annual report (2022-23), remaining reserves in July 2023 show 134 BCF. It was then said that Bibiana reserves could increase by 1 TCF. 16 months (485 days) have passed since then daily average remaining reserves have fallen below 600 as FF is extracting gas. 600 days in simple numbers. But that is never possible in case of gas, sudden water and sand can stop the production.

Former MD Amjad Hossain said, I think the initiative should be taken to build a pipe line from Bhola. At the same time, the way Indonesia brings gas from the islands by tanker should be used. Sangu will take it to the platform by tanker and inject it. Gas will be connected to the grid through pipelines using Sangu infrastructure. We need these tankers, later when we get gas in Katubdia and Shallow, the tankers will be used to bring them.

Bhola-Khulna (Via Barishal) pipeline will cost about 7 thousand crore taka. There is a debate whether the pipeline will raise that money or not! In response to such a question, he said, I think there is at least 5 TCF (trillion cubic feet) of gas in Bhola, all the wells drilled in that area have found gas. The distance from Bhola East to Bhola North is 40 km. Gas was found there. As many wells as I did in Hatia Trap, there was no miss, gas was found at Muladi, Begumganj, Sundalpur, Bhola, Sangu. It will be the largest reserve after Bibiana.

Regarding the proven reserves of Bhola, he said, when the Titas gas field was announced in 1967, the reserves were only 1 TCF, now it is said to be 7 TCF. Similarly, the Bibiana gas field took off with 2 TCF, gradually increasing reserves. It is not possible to tell the actual reserves until the gas field is dead.

Cab senior vice president and energy advisor. M Shamsul Alam told Barta24.com, warnings have been given about Bibiana for a long time. By 2026, its production may collapse. But that warning was not heeded. How many tasks need to be done on an urgent basis. Meanwhile arrangements should be made to bring Bhola gas. There is 1 tcf of gas in the roof and gas needs to be brought from there.

Besides, he said that it is impossible to keep the supply normal with imported gas. The economy of Bangladesh is not in a position to pay the price that will be charged if it is imported. Fuel versatility is needed, I think there will be a big change in electric vehicles in five to six years. That's how planning is needed.

Where is the barrier to bring gas to the ground?

150 km pipeline is needed to take Khulna from Bhola to Barishal. It has been estimated to cost about 7 to 8 thousand crore taka. How will the cost of the pipeline rise if the gas reserves are not high? Lenders will ask for his assurance even if he wants to get a loan. In 2004, when the Asian Development Bank asked for a guarantee for the construction of the pipeline, the project collapsed, said Maqbool E-Elahi Choudhury.

When the pipeline is blocked for Tk 7000 crore, importing one cargo of LNG costs Tk. 649 crore (August tender). Which is equal to 1 day demand of the country (3000 million).

2 gas fields have been discovered in Dwip District Bhola. 9 wells have been drilled there, which have a daily production capacity of 190 million cubic feet. But due to lack of demand, only 75 million cubic feet (November 6) has been extracted. Petrobangla is working to drill 15 more wells there.

Chairman of Petrobangla Janendra Nath Sarkar told Barta24.com that it is known to everyone that extraction of gas from wells will end at some point. There is nothing for anyone to do. Now the question is what we are doing about the amount of gas that will be reduced from Bibiana. By 2025 we will increase production by 600 million by drilling 50 wells. 190 million production has already increased by drilling 16 wells. Besides, the project of digging 100 more wells has been taken up.

In these matters, there is great potential for obtaining gas outside and in deep sea and mountain areas. Tenders have been called for offshore gas extraction, which will take 8 to 12 years even if gas is found there. And the work of formulating model PSC (Production Sharing Agreement) for calling for tenders in hilly areas is in progress. Although it is considered certain to get gas from these potential sources, it is too late to add that gas to the system. For that reason, to deal with the period of 2027 and 2028, quick action must be taken now. If not, the people concerned are seeing danger for the country's economy.