President Xi Jinping recently dispatched his deputy premier, He Lifeng, to Pakistan to unveil a new model of economic and strategic engagement. This comes just months after China announced its grand defense cooperation and development plan for the Central Asian Republics. Islamabad declared a two-day holiday in order for the delegation to attend conferences and cultural performances in a secure setting.

On July 31, Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif and Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Lifeng ratified six agreements to mark the tenth anniversary of the $65 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The agreements include an export exchange mechanism and a joint cooperation committee on CPEC expansion, a memorandum of understanding for the industrial workers’ exchange program, the Main Line-1 national railway upgrade plan, the realignment of the Karakoram Highway (phase 2), which passes through India-claimed Gilgit, and mechanisms to increase Pakistan’s agricultural exports to China. This also involves business-to-business investment in agriculture and information technology, thereby guiding Pakistan to emulate the Chinese growth framework and export standards.

Later that evening, Pakistan’s President bestowed the prestigious national award of Hilal-e-Pakistan on the Chinese deputy prime minister in recognition of his contributions to securing the lifelines of the national economy. Pakistan asserts that China stepped in to save the day and provided a $5 billion loan in recent months to prevent a default.

General Asim Muneer, Pakistan’s army chief, and de-facto ruler, told the Chinese delegation that the new engagement model further solidifies the iron brothers’ all-weather strategic relations. He asserted that both countries are brothers in arms, and their unique bilateral ties help to protect collective national interests. Chinese officials referred to CPEC as an important component of the world-renowned Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has significantly improved the lives of Pakistanis.

Beijing is keen to increase agricultural imports from Pakistan. During the visit, the Chinese delegation also signed an agreement to import dry chili peppers from Pakistan. Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan’s economy, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the country’s income, and the military establishment, which controls the national agricultural and construction sectors, stands to benefit significantly from China’s future plans.

The Pakistani parliament recently amended the country’s laws to give the army broad powers to seize private and protected lands. Such decisions have irreversible consequences for indigenous peoples and small farmers in Pakistan, which is riddled with insurmountable economic obstacles, particularly when Pakistan army’s voracious appetite for land grabbing is linked to China’s relentless pursuit of new resource-rich horizons. The new development paradigm will allow China and the Pakistani army to acquire land in Sindh, Balochistan, and Gilgit-Baltistan with little opposition.

The World Sindhi Congress, a representative organization of native Sindhis, claims that the military establishment has encroached on 1.3 million acres of prime farmland in Sindh, threatening biodiversity and subsistence livelihoods. Furthermore, the Sindh government is committing ecocide and cultural genocide by building dams and awarding mineral and clay extraction contracts in the Karoonjhar Mountain national park. Karoonjhar in District Tharparkar is home to endangered wildlife as well as sacred cultural and religious heritage, including ancient Jain and Hindu temples.

Sindhis are now speaking out vehemently against the China-led Tharparkar Coal project, which is wreaking havoc on the region’s environment and culture. As a result of China-led resource abuse, the local Gorano community and other residents of Khario Ghulam Shah, Talwaiyo, and Verwai villages face permanent displacement and loss of farmland, pastures, irrigation network, and livelihoods.

The current economic downturn and protracted political crisis in Pakistan may not be ideal circumstances for inviting Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkey to join CPEC. It is, however, mutually beneficial for Pakistan to assist China in deepening strategic depth in the Arabian Gulf in order to realize its Indian Ocean ambitions.

On August 4, the Iranian Consul General, Ali Banafsha Khawa, expressed Iran’s keen interest in actively participating in CPEC projects. He emphasized the significance of regional cooperation in achieving mutual prosperity and progress. As relations between Pakistan and Iran improve, visits by Iranian religious leaders to places like Quetta and Gilgit-Baltistan are becoming more common, contributing to a positive image of China’s communist government among Pakistani Shias and paving the way for stronger regional cooperation.

Concurrently, the trilateral regional security cooperation mechanism is assisting China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan in strengthening strategic communications and policy coordination. Pakistan is currently a member of the Quadrilateral Cooperation and Coordination Mechanism, alongside Afghanistan, China, and Tajikistan. While extending CPEC to Afghanistan and Tajikistan will boost cross-border economic integration, it will also encourage Tajikistan to sell low-cost hydroelectricity to Pakistan and resume trading along the Vakhan corridor.

On July 18, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan signed a rail link agreement. The project would be a continuation of the CPEC, which has effectively linked Pakistani seaports to Islamabad, the country’s capital in the north. The project will be completed in 2030, with an estimated capacity of 15 million tons of cargo per year. According to Uzbek assessments, the 475-mile-long railroads would cut passenger and goods-delivery time from Pakistan by five days and commodity prices by roughly 40%.

Furthermore, Kazakhstan’s Trade Minister, Serik Zhumangarin, met with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif to discuss Kazakhstan’s participation in the trans-Afghan railroad project. Given China’s new strategic and military policy toward Central Asian Republics, both China and Pakistan stand to benefit significantly from the regional alliance.

While the trans-Afghan railroad initiative would benefit the regional economy, it could also spark racial and sectarian clashes in areas such as Baghlan, Parwan, and Parachinar as different tribes fight to preserve their ethnic demography and land rights. Another possible challenge is the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which enjoys considerable strategic depth in Afghanistan’s Pashtun belt.

Sergey Sukhankin believes that the expansion of CPEC is increasing pressure on Pakistan’s rulers to allow China to station security in their country. Sukhankin writes in his July 14 article, “Chinese PSCs in South Asia: The Case of Pakistan,” that the growing number of security incidents, as well as Pakistan’s inability to ensure the safety of Chinese nationals, are prompting Beijing to consider stationing its own security to protect assets. He reveals that the Chinese Ministry of State Security made such requests in 2016 and again in 2022.

According to Ahsan Iqbal, the Pakistani minister in charge of CPEC, such overtures will lead to clashes between Chinese security personnel and the local population, fueling Sinophobia and anti-China sentiments. In recent years, many Pakistani organizations have condemned the Chinese government for committing genocide against Muslims in Xinjiang province, where over a million Uighur-Muslims linger in concentration camps. Many notable Muslim leaders also accuse Hans of raping Uighur women in order to change the racial makeup of Xinjiang.

Historically, Pakistan has allowed communist China to station security forces on its soil, albeit on a temporary basis. Sukhankin reveals that two companies, the Hanwei International Security Services and China’s Frontier Services Group have admitted to running security missions in Pakistan. Furthermore, the Pan-Asia Group, the Pakistani branch of China Overseas Security Group, acknowledges conducting live-fire training for its personnel. According to Sukhankin, China’s preference for deploying its own security for CPEC projects is a vote of no confidence in its iron brother, Pakistan.

As Pakistan fails, Beijing sees no choice but to disregard Pakistan’s rulers’ reservations and bring its own security. The long-term impact of permanently stationing Chinese forces would aggravate Pakistan’s security environment and provoke retaliation from Western nations. In the past, the US administration expressed concern about China’s intentions to deploy security forces to strengthen its strategic presence in Pakistan. It could also invite rebuke from friendly countries such as Japan, Indonesia, and Turkey. Pakistani officials acknowledge that balancing relations with the US and China will be difficult in the coming years. With a failing economy and no financial prospects from the Afghan Jihad project, Pakistan is rapidly moving in a direction where choosing a side is unavoidable.

A day after China’s deputy prime minister arrived in Islamabad, a US official stated that his country welcomes trade and investment favoring Pakistan’s development. He did, however, emphasize the importance of transparency, long-term financing practices, and national and data security in order to ensure mutual benefit for Pakistan and its partners.

“With respect to investments by any country, we believe good governance, long-term capacity building, and sustainable market-based approaches that allow the private sector to flourish are the best paths to sustained growth and development ….We have not always seen that with respect to investments by the PRC in countries around the world,” said Matthew Miller, spokesperson for the US Department of State.

China’s CPEC, which connects Gwadar Port in Balochistan with China’s Xinjiang, is opposed by India as it passes through Pakistan-occupied Gilgit-Baltistan. According to India, the project calls into question India’s sovereignty over Gilgit-Baltistan and other districts of Pakistan-occupied Jammu, where China is building dams, boring fiber optic cable, extracting minerals, and planning to lay railroad and oil and gas pipelines.

Pakistan is making difficult political and geostrategic decisions in order to create balance with India. While India-China tensions are bound to strengthen the China-Pakistan bond; Islamabad is essentially handing China a blank check to establish hegemony in South Asia and the Middle East, with far-reaching global implications. Such policies are fraught with irreconcilable contradictions, and one wonders if they will aid the country in staving off its slow demise.