Bamboo Capitalist's Games in Doklam
Six years after it was in the headlines, Doklam, which lies at a tri-junction between the India, China, and Bhutan, is back in the news once again. It is the fall-out of the latest border talks between Bhutan and China amidst apprehensions that Thimphu is tilting towards Beijing. And concerns that China could simply take over Doklam like it stretched its reach in the South China Sea, (SCA).
Overlooking crucial Siliguri Corridor of India, Doklam (Donglang, or Donglang Caochang, meaning Donglang grazing field in Chinese) is both a high plateau and a valley in West Bhutan.
China claims Doklam as an extension of its very own Chumbi Valley, which, as the map shows, is "the wedge of land that lies between Bhutan, and Indian province of Sikkim".
Upping the ante three years ago, in 2020, Beijing asserted ownership of the Sakteng Wildlife Sanctuary, which is located in eastern Bhutan and borders India's Arunachal Pradesh, which, Beijing claims as a part of its Southern Tibet.
It is possible that asserting rights over the Sakteng Wildlife Sanctuary is part of China's strategy to pressure Bhutan and take over Doklam. With the Bamboo Capitalist, nothing can be ruled out.
STAND OFF IN 2017
Doklam witnessed a 73-day-long standoff between Indian and Chinese troops in 2017 with New Delhi concerned over protecting the territorial integrity of the Kingdom of Bhutan. Also, because Bhutan ceding land to China will impact its security interests especially in the Siliguri Corridor.
The ground situation is slightly different this time though. But India is not taking any chances, going by reports from the Siliguri Corridor. Known as 'Chicken's neck', the 68-km long corridor is India's lifeline to reach its eight northeastern states that share border with either China or Myanmar or both.
This strategically significant area also connects India with Bangladesh and Nepal. And is guarded by its border sentinels, Border Security Force (BSF), Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP), and Sahastra Seema Bal (SSB). Now the Narendra Modi government is likely to deploy armed police forces as well to be in readiness 'to tackle any conflict situation between crucial stakeholders, India, China, and Bhutan.'
Like with all its other neighbours, with Bhutan also, China has a long pestering border dispute. According to information in the public domain, which is not disputed by Beijing, Sino-Bhutan dispute started after PLA troops occupied Tibet in 1950, and subsequently seized control over eight Bhutanese enclaves in Tibet.
China claims about 764 sq. km of Bhutan, but in the vexed boundary talks that began in 1984 primary focus has been on the Jakarlung and Pasamlung areas (both in North Bhutan) besides the Doklam area.
So far, the two countries have held over 24 rounds of border talks and 12 rounds of expert-level meetings. A joint press release issued after the latest round in August-end (between 21 and 24 August, to be precise) has described the talks as candid, constructive and friendly. It went on to say that a memorandum of understanding (MoU) was reached "aimed at the three-step roadmap".
"One of the important outcomes of the 13th Expert Group Meeting (EGM) is the establishment of the Joint Technical Team on the Delimitation of China-Bhutan Boundary which held its first meeting on the sidelines of the 13th EGM," said the statement adding that both sides have simultaneously agreed to accelerate the process to implement the road map "for expediting boundary negotiations in a warm and cordial atmosphere".
The road map has not been elaborated as such as yet.
Since the seventh round of talks held in 1990, China has been pushing a "package proposal". It is in essence a trade-off of sorts - China would give up its 495 sq. km of claim in Northern Bhutan. In return Bhutan should recognise China's claims in western Bhutan that includes Doklam.
Expectedly, the Bhutan Parliament (National Assembly) has shot down the proposal.
Prime Minister Lotay Tshering is aware of the ground reality. Because he had once gone on record to say that demarcation of the Bhutan-China boundary would be done in the near future but the tri-junction point that involves India, China, and Bhutan would be discussed separately only after the inclusion of India.
Lately, however, he has hinted at a sudden tilt towards China. "There are three of us (Bhuta, China and India). There is no big or small country; all are three equal countries (in the Doklam problem), each counting for one-third," said Tshering.
The Global Times, a part of Chinese State media, has gone one step further by branding India as the "main obstacle" standing in the way of settling the dispute.
As of now China and Bhutan do not have diplomatic relations. Contact and communication is maintained through the Thimpu Mission in New Delhi.
Hitherto, Bhutan has maintained a "neutral" political status with China. It did not travel the Nepal way. And has "a very cordial" relations with India under its 1949 Treaty of Friendship and Coordination.
Moreover, Thimpu has not subscribed to any loans and grants given by China under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
ROLL BACK?
The turn of events pops up the question: Is Bhutan set to roll back its policy of being a buffer state to India to counter China's aggression at the border?
Frankly there are no readymade answers what with President Xi Jinping searching for breathing space on the domestic scene. He is still the new helmsman of China no doubt, but the going has become tough with post-covid economy refusing to look up.
The fact of the matter is that Beijing is resorting to carrot-and-stick policy to deal with Bhutan. Earlier it tried to lure Thimphu but now it has intensified its bully tactics by building roads, bridges and villages on the Bhutanese territory.
China is not happy with the talk of inclusion of India in a possible trilateral talk over Doklam. It wants to resolve all territorial disputes with Bhutan only with Bhutan on board.
How the issue plays out in the days ahead is a Sudoku but clearly China's Bhutan card has a message for India. It can be seen as a message of intimidation or harassment, as a columnist for The Quint wrote, or an impending security threat as some other commentator termed it.
One thing is clear though. It is that "China's border talks with Bhutan are aimed at India."
This Beijing speak is a development New Delhi has to factor in its stride since both countries are locked in a military standoff on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) that is into its fourth year.
Also, because, as a Foreign Policy magazine commentary said, "China-Bhutan talks are a part of Chinese strategy to gain crucial advantage over India".
Put simply, not only New Delhi but also the members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) should activate their eyes in the sky and ears on the ground in their larger interest of preparedness.