The country's energy sector has lost its way and is languishing in the dark alleys. When the chances of sudden increase in domestic gas production are low, the situation is such that the international market is stuck in high quality quicksand.
There is no alternative to import at the moment to ensure gas supply. Again, it is difficult to sell at the current market price by importing at a higher price. Petrobangla has started raising prices in the midst of a depressing economy in Corona. The organization has submitted a proposal to the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC) to increase gas prices. The proposal states that if importers do not increase the selling price due to the increase in the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG), there will be a loss of Tk. 70,000 crore a year. That is why the price of gas needs to be increased by an average of 117 percent.
According to the letter, state-owned companies Bapex and Sylhet Gas Field are buying at an average purchase price of Tk. 1.27 per cubic meter, multinationals are buying from Chevron at Tk. 2.89 and Tallo at Tk. 3.10. On the other hand, the actual purchase price of LNG is Tk. 37.79 and with other charges it is Tk 50.37 considering the daily import of 850 million cubic feet of LNG, this price. However, energy experts could not agree with Petrobangla's calculation. Some people think that the price increase argument is being exaggerated.
The current state of the gas division to handle the current crisis has been very poor. The current demand is not being able to supply gas, we have to ration every day, even then there is a shortage. In order to cope with the crisis, many gas fields have had to choose the path of producing excess gas in a very risky manner which could pose a serious threat to that gas field. The bad news is that the production of domestic gas fields is declining day by day. At one time up to 2700 MMCFD was produced. Now it has come down below 2500 MMCFD. By 2023, there could be a major catastrophe in gas production. 28 gas fields have been discovered in Bangladesh. The proven reserves in these fields are estimated at 21.4 TCF and 6 TCF. Of this, about 16 TCF has been lifted. As such, the proven reserves are only 3 TCF, and the potential reserves are as high as 6 TSF. About 1 TCF of gas is being extracted every year. The proven reserves are expected to run out in 2024. On the other hand, the demand for gas is increasing every year due to rapid industrialization and domestic electricity. In order to address the deficit, LNG import has been mentioned in the current budget.
The way imports have been brought to the fore, the reality is not favorable at all. The FSRU (Floating Storage Re-Gasification Unit) has acquired the capacity to import 1000 MMCFD LNG by burning a lot of wood. The plan to import this LNG was in 2014. It took more than 5 years to be implemented; the first unit was able to bring 500 MMCFD in August 2016. The second unit arrived in April 2019. When the sea is rough, the supply is disrupted. In order to increase LNG import, an initiative has been taken to construct a land based LNG terminal with a capacity of 1000 MMCFD at Matarbari. The work is expected to be completed by 2024. Recently, a consultant has been appointed and it is difficult to say that he will come on time. In other words, even if the deficit increases, the way to import more LNG is almost closed. There is also the issue of volatile international market prices. As only 5-6 per cent LNG is imported from the sport market, the price of whole gas has to be increased by 118 per cent to cope. It is needless to say where the market price will go if the import volume increases in the future.
Petrobangla is on a dangerous path if it handles the current gas crisis. Excessive production can lead to catastrophic in the gas fields. International fuel expert engineer Khandaker Salek Sufi told Barta24.com that the gas extraction capacity of wells in Bangladesh is about 30 mmcfd. But some wells are being doubled. The issue could be dire for the gas field. The Sangu gas field in Bangladesh has been closed in this way. The production capacity of Sangu was 120 mmcfd, where up to 150 mmcfd was lifted. Due to the extra lifting first water and then sand came out. Even then, Sangu was shut down in 2013 for not paying attention to the issue. Even then we did not have learning.
At the root of today's crisis lies decades of stagnation in oil and gas exploration. The result of which is today's crisis. Only 40 exploration wells have been drilled in Bangladesh since independence, while Tripura has drilled 160 in its small size. Tripura has drilled 160 wells and discovered only 11 gas fields. Bangladesh has discovered 28 gas fields by digging only 95 wells in the last 110 years. Although the success rate of Bangladesh is high, now oil and gas exploration has remained in the whale. The 1995 Energy Policy called for the drilling of four exploration wells a year, but no government complied. Although huge seas were acquired, no work could be done there. Foreign companies are not showing interest when PSC (Production Sharing Agreement) is called in the sea. Complaints of the companies Petrobangla has already locked the information of the seismic survey conducted in the sea. If you don't see these, no one will come to pour money in the water. In the past this information was open for purchase but now it has been locked for mysterious reasons. And this is why foreigners are turning away. Energy experts believe that today's gas crisis is the overall result. Petrobangla officials complained that foreign companies did not want to come because they did not have enough information. However, many do not agree with this view of Petrobangla. They have calculated that Bangladesh has more information than neighboring India and Myanmar. Petrobangla has once again come under fire after the Ministry of External Affairs recently announced the possibility of obtaining 103 TCF gas hydrate in the sea quoting survey data.
Energy experts think that no government other than the Bangabandhu government has failed to pay enough attention to this. During the current Awami League, oil and gas exploration had gained momentum, but due to lack of coordination, benefits are not being reaped. Bapex is sitting in a well in Bhola with gas when the country is in a gas crisis. Energy experts are blaming some short-sighted decisions of the Energy Division and Petrobangla for this.
The huge reserves of domestic coal could have been another good way to deal with the gas shortage. But that train missed the policy decision not to pick up coal now.
While the Division of Energy is in a state of disrepair, the Division of Power continues to implement new gas-fired power plants. According to the revised master plan of 2016, 281 MW new power plants are to be added in 2021 and 116 MW in 2022.
Member of Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (GAS) Maqbool E Elahi Chowdhury said Bangabandhu had thought during the war that building a golden Bangladesh would not be based on agriculture alone. We have to industrialize; we need oil and gas to industrialize. He had to ensure the fuel. Bangabandhu then instructed Shell Oil to increase the gas network. "We can't find customers on the lines we have," Shell Oil said. It is not possible to extend the line. Then Bangabandhu said, I will come up with a proposal to set up the pipeline within fifteen days, otherwise come up with a proposal to sell it. Shell then came up with a sale offer thinking it was a war-torn country. In this way Bangladesh became the owner of 5 gas fields.
"The way we are now moving towards import dependence, in 2030,-25-30 billion will be spent on fuel imports," he said. If we spend the lion's share of our foreign reserves on energy, it will be difficult to get to developed countries. There is no possibility of gas in the country for those who believe in this philosophy. They please leave the road.
Maqbool-e-Ilahi Chowdhury said, "The problem now is that the decision that Bangabandhu used to give in three days is not made now in three months."