GDP growth to fall to 4.1% in current fiscal year

  • Staff Correspondent, Barta24.com,Dhaka
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photo: Collected

photo: Collected

The World Bank expects GDP growth to fall to 4.1 percent in the current fiscal year 2024-25. Earlier in June, the organization had said that growth could be 5.7 percent this fiscal year.

The World Bank's 'Global Economic Prospects' report, released on Friday, has given a new forecast for GDP growth. It said that since the middle of last year, economic activity in Bangladesh has been affected due to political unrest. Investor confidence has declined. Due to such a situation and policy uncertainty, the economic growth forecast has been reduced.

বিজ্ঞাপন

The World Bank cited other problems as the reason for the weakening of the economy. The organization said that supply-related constraints and restrictions on imports, including energy shortages in the country, have weakened industrial activity. Pressure has increased on inflation. High inflation has reduced the purchasing power of people, resulting in a slowdown in the growth of the services sector. Although inflation has declined in most South Asian countries, it remains high in Bangladesh. Monetary policy has been made more contractionary to reduce inflation. However, inflation in Bangladesh may be higher than the target this year as well.

The World Bank report said that if the economic growth and domestic demand of Bangladesh's major trading partners, including the United States and European countries, declines, it will affect exports. As a single country, Bangladesh exports the most to the United States. And almost half of the country's total exports of goods go to Europe.

বিজ্ঞাপন

Last month, the IMF lowered Bangladesh's GDP growth forecast. The organization said that GDP growth may fall to 3.8 percent in the current fiscal year. Earlier, the organization projected a growth of 4.5 percent in October. Meanwhile, considering the overall situation, the interim government has also decided to reduce the GDP growth target. The GDP growth target for the current 2024-25 fiscal year has been reduced to 5.25 percent. The target in the current fiscal year's budget was 6.8 percent. Finance Minister Abul Hasan Mahmud Ali of the Awami League government announced this target in his first budget speech.

According to a World Bank report released yesterday, the GDP growth forecast for the entire South Asian region this year had to be lowered slightly due to Bangladesh. Because while the growth forecast for other countries was increased, it was reduced only for Bangladesh. Bangladesh's policy uncertainty is a major reason for this.

The World Bank said that due to increasing political uncertainty, investment and industrial activities in Bangladesh are likely to remain sluggish in the near future. However, GDP growth may increase again to 5.4 percent in the 2025-26 fiscal year. This will be possible only if political stability returns, financial sector reforms are successful, the business environment improves, and trade increases. If inflation decreases, it will also help increase private consumption spending.

However, the World Bank believes that per capita income growth in some South Asian countries, including Bangladesh, will remain weak in the next fiscal year. The organization's report also said that unemployment remains high in the South Asian region. It has increased in many countries, including Bangladesh, Bhutan, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.